Brady Campaign rates the states

The Brady Campaign for the Prevention of Gun Violence is a notoriously anti-gun organization that has, over the years, lobbied and worked to get more stringent gun control laws enacted in the U.S.

It would like to see “one gun a month” legislation and campaigns for handgun licensing and registration (at least as a start) and is dead set against the Right to Carry laws that are being passed in many U.S. states.

But in recent weeks, they have been getting a stick in the eye.

Each year the Brady Campaign does a review of the various state’s gun laws and gives them a mark from A to F. The more user-friendly the laws are for gun owners, the lower the grade, with Right-to Carry (RTC) states consistently getting a rating from D down to F.

However an analysis done by blogger Howard Nemerov shows that RTC states do not have more violent crime and in fact that in 2005 when U.S. violent crime rates went up by 1.3%, non-RTC states increased on aggregate by 2.8% while RTC states went up by 0.6%.

Since 2001, RTC states, where more people carry guns in public, consistently average a “D”. Brady continues to be unhappy with the country’s direction regarding gun control: between 2001 and 2005, RTC states increased from 32 to 38 and Brady downgraded the U.S. average from “C-” to a “D+.” Their response is curious, since the national violent crime rate fell 7.0% during this time frame.

     Even worse for Brady, violent crime trends are not spread equally across all states. RTC states (average Brady grade “D”) saw an aggregate 7.8% drop in violent crime, while non-RTC states (average Brady grade “B”) saw a 5.2% decrease. Even when Brady grades synchronize with violent crime trends, it fails to give an accurate picture: Brady dropped the national average grade from “C-” to “D+” in 2005, the same year that the violent crime rate increased 1.3%. This would seem to make sense, as a lower grade is supposed to reflect less safety for citizens. Unfortunately for Brady, most of that increase occurred in non-RTC states, which saw an aggregate increase of 2.8%, while RTC states increased 0.6%. Using Brady’s criteria of grading each state as an equivalent entity, non-RTC states averaged a 5.6% increase in violent crime, while RTC states averaged a 0.6% increase. Since 2001, the violent crime differential between RTC and non-RTC states increased from 26.0% to 27.5%, meaning that RTC states are becoming relatively more law-abiding compared to non-RTC states.

Some more anaysis here

The Brady Campaign kind of ends up with egg on its’ face. Makes you wonder if they even looked at the state crime stats or if they just figured they would bluff their way through.

Also an interesting comment by the president of the Brady Campaign here. He must count on the fact that he thinks that people are flat-out stupid.


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